Against a backdrop in which the federal government has sharply tightened temporary immigration and the provincial nominee route has become a core tool for provinces to retain long-term labour, the first-half nomination progress of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in 2026 offers an important reference for applicants still in the candidate pool or weighing a provincial nomination as a pathway to permanent residence (PR). Both provinces have used about half of their allocations, but they give different answers to the question of "who has the best chance of being nominated."

Notably, both provinces' allocations this year are markedly lower than in previous years. As a result of the federal government's roughly 50% overall cut to provincial PNP allocations in 2025, Manitoba's allocation has fallen from 9,500 per year in 2023 and 2024 to 6,239 in 2026, while Saskatchewan's has dropped from 8,000 in 2024 to 4,761, a decline of about 40% from two years ago. At the same time, the federal government actually raised the landing target for the provincial nominee category in its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan (about 91,500 people for 2026), underscoring that "tighter allocations, sharper competition and a greater emphasis on labour market alignment" have become the keynote of this year's provincial nomination programs.

Manitoba: Skilled Worker Stream leads, with targeted draws for healthcare and education

The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) is built around two main worker-focused streams. The Skilled Worker Stream is divided into two pathways: "Skilled Worker in Manitoba" is aimed at temporary foreign workers and international graduates already working in the province, while "Skilled Worker Overseas" targets skilled workers outside Canada who have a connection to Manitoba through past work, study or family. The International Education Stream serves recent graduates of Manitoba's local institutions.

Some MPNP streams are aligned with the federal Express Entry system and issue enhanced nominations, which add 600 points to a candidate's Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score and all but guarantee an invitation in the next round; others are base streams, under which nominees submit their permanent residence applications directly to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) outside of Express Entry. The two differ significantly in process and timeline: the federal stage of an enhanced nomination typically takes about 6 months, while base streams often require considerably longer.

For 2026, Manitoba's provincial nomination allocation is 6,239. Provincial data show that from January through May 2026, Manitoba issued 2,167 nominations, of which 697 were enhanced nominations issued through Express Entry.

It is worth clarifying that the MPNP follows a two-step process: candidates first submit an Expression of Interest (EOI), those selected receive a Letter of Advice to Apply (LAA), and only after submitting a formal application and being approved do they receive a nomination. Because not every LAA converts into a nomination, and because of the time lag between submission, assessment and nomination, the LAA and nomination figures are not in sync.

On the invitation side, from January through June 2026 Manitoba held 12 PNP selection rounds and issued a cumulative 1,833 Letters of Advice to Apply. Of these, 1,296 (70%) were issued under the base stream, while the remaining 537 went to candidates holding a valid Express Entry profile number and job seeker validation code. By category, the Skilled Worker Stream received the most LAAs, at 1,210, or 66% of the total.

Manitoba also held two occupation-targeted draws: 192 LAAs went to healthcare candidates and 431 to education-related occupations (secondary school teachers; elementary and kindergarten teachers; early childhood educators and assistants; and elementary and secondary school teacher assistants). This continues the province's recent trend of targeted recruitment for healthcare and education occupations -- in the second half of 2025 Manitoba repeatedly issued large batches of invitations for health-related occupations.

The table below summarizes the structure of Manitoba's LAAs from January through June 2026:

Saskatchewan: three-sector framework, with capped sectors opening by window

For 2026, the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP) allocates its nominations across three sector categories, a framework Saskatchewan announced in December 2025 and one regarded as the most comprehensive overhaul in the program's history. Priority sectors -- healthcare, agriculture, skilled trades, mining, manufacturing, energy and technology -- are reserved at least 50% of the 4,761 annual nomination spots. Priority-sector candidates may apply at any time, including from outside Canada, and are not subject to work permit expiry timelines.

Three of the sectors are capped: accommodation and food services, trucking, and retail, which together account for at most 25% of the annual allocation. Capped-sector candidates must have six months or less remaining on their work permit when they apply, and may only submit during designated application windows -- Saskatchewan holds six such windows a year. The most recent window was on July 6 and 7, 2026, and the next capped-sector window is set for September 7. All other sectors are open for applications year-round but do not have spots separately reserved for them.

Saskatchewan's 2026 nomination allocation is 4,761. As of June 30, 2026, Saskatchewan had issued 2,628 nominations, or 55% of the full-year allocation. However, Saskatchewan did not disclose how these nominations are split between Express Entry and non-Express Entry PNP categories.

By sector, progress varies significantly, as shown in the table below:

Priority sectors have issued 1,466 nominations so far this year, using 62% of their 2,380 spots; capped sectors (trucking, accommodation, food services and retail) have filled 718 of their 1,190 spots, leaving about 40% for the second half of the year; other sectors had used just 37% of their 1,191 spots as of June 30, with 747 remaining. Nominations issued across the three sectors total exactly 2,628, matching the province's mid-year nomination total.

It is worth noting that Saskatchewan has aligned the SINP with its provincial labour market strategy, with the priority-sector list mapping directly to shortage and growth industries; some analysts argue that this three-sector framework reflects how, under tightening federal allocations, provinces are shifting from "winning on volume" to "precise labour market alignment."

What to watch in the second half

Manitoba still has substantial room left in its 2026 allocation. The targeted draws for healthcare and education in the first half suggest that these two fields are very likely to continue receiving priority before year-end. If you are in Manitoba's EOI pool and your occupation falls into either category, you should watch closely for targeted invitation rounds in the second half.

For Saskatchewan, priority-sector candidates still have about 45% of the total allocation available and may apply at any time; for capped-sector candidates, the September 7 window is the next opportunity to submit an employer job approval. Capped sectors have about 40% of their spots left, so there is still room for nominations, but competition within each window is fierce and spots fill on a first-come, first-served basis.