A year shaved off in one month, but still 2.4 times the service standard

Processing time data updated by IRCC on June 8 puts the estimated wait for newly submitted AIP permanent residence applications at 26 months, a sharp 12-month drop from 38 months just one month earlier. It is the lowest AIP processing time IRCC has published since the fall of 2025.

Even so, the figure remains a long way from normal. IRCC's service standard for the AIP is 11 months, meaning the department commits to finalizing 80% of applications within that window. In other words, the current wait is still about 2.4 times the official standard. Here is how the processing time has moved over the past ten months:

The surge began in fall 2025: a new methodology compounded by quota cuts

The unusual volatility in AIP processing times began in October 2025. That month, the estimated wait leapt from 13 months in September to 37 months, a single-month increase of 184.6%. It stayed above 33 months for months afterward and peaked at 40 months in April 2026.

Two overlapping factors drove the surge. First, in October 2025 IRCC launched a new personalized processing time tool that switched programs such as the AIP to forward-looking estimates, calculating how long an application submitted today would take based on the current inventory and projected processing capacity, which made a long-standing backlog suddenly visible in the published numbers. Second, the backlog itself is real and substantial: the federal government cut the AIP's annual admissions target from 6,500 in 2024 to 5,000 in 2025 under the Immigration Levels Plan, and the 2026-2028 levels plan lowered it further to 4,000 per year. In documents submitted to a parliamentary committee in November 2024, IRCC had already acknowledged that the quota reductions, combined with the existing application inventory, "will lead to increased processing times."

IRCC's inventory currently holds about 12,900 pending AIP applications, down slightly from roughly 13,100 in October 2025 and roughly 13,600 in January 2026. Measured against the annual target of 4,000 admissions, however, the inventory is still more than three times the yearly quota, which is the structural reason processing times remain far above the service standard.

Two-year work permits against a three-year wait: applicants faced a status gap

The most immediate impact of the surge on in-Canada applicants has been the risk of a gap in their work authorization.

AIP applicants can obtain a dedicated work permit that is exempt from the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA), but the permit is valid for a maximum of two years and is generally non-renewable. Unlike applicants under many other permanent residence programs, AIP applicants are also ineligible for bridging open work permits (BOWPs). With processing stretching beyond three years against a two-year permit, large numbers of applicants faced losing their legal authorization to work before receiving a decision.

To defuse the crisis, Atlantic provinces led by New Brunswick began issuing letters of support in October 2025 to AIP-endorsed applicants whose work permits were nearing expiry, allowing them to apply for C18 closed work permits and keep working for their original employer while awaiting a permanent residence decision. New Brunswick's immigration office stated explicitly in its official notice that this was a temporary solution to IRCC's lengthened processing times.

Notably, New Brunswick subsequently tightened its AIP endorsement system starting in February 2026, moving endorsement applications to monthly draws from a candidate pool, pausing new employer designation applications, and halting endorsements for accommodation and food services and certain other occupations, again citing the cuts to national immigration quotas.

An employer-driven Atlantic pathway: program background and eligibility

The AIP is an employer-driven permanent residence pathway that launched as a pilot (AIPP) in 2017 and became permanent in January 2022. By May 2024, more than 24,000 principal applicants and their family members had landed in the four Atlantic provinces through the program. Applicants must meet the following requirements:

• Receive a job offer from a designated employer in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, or Prince Edward Island;
• Have that job offer endorsed by the province where the employer is located;
• Meet the minimum requirements for language ability, work experience, education, and settlement funds.

How it compares: AIP remains one of the longest waits among economic programs

Set against other economic permanent residence programs, the AIP's current processing time is still markedly long. Based on the same June 8 data, Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) applications through Express Entry are processed in 6 months, the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) each take 7 months, and the base (non-Express Entry) PNP takes 13 months. For applicants planning a move through the Atlantic pathway, the 26-month wait is a clear improvement, but timelines should still be built with plenty of margin.