Canada's Population Growth Hits Post-War Low as Immigration Policy Adjustments Accelerate Workforce Aging
Population Growth Sharply Decelerates to Historic Lows
As of July 1, 2025, Canada's total population reached 41,651,653, an increase of only 47,098 people from the previous quarter. This growth rate represents the lowest second-quarter increase since the 2020 COVID-19 border restrictions.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- Q2 2025: 47,098 people
- Q2 2024: Over 272,000 people
- Q2 2023: 321,000 people
Over the past 12 months (ending July 1, 2025), Canada's population growth rate was 0.9% (389,324 people), a sharp decline compared to the 3.0% growth rate from July 2023 to July 2024.
International Migration Contribution Significantly Declines
International migration remains the primary driver of Canada's population growth, but its contribution ratio is shrinking:
Q2 2025 Migration Data:
- International migration contribution: 33,694 people (71.5% of total growth)
- Natural increase contribution: 13,404 people (births minus deaths)
- Comparison to Q2 2024: International migration contributed 95.3%
Temporary Resident Numbers Drop Dramatically
Non-Permanent Resident (NPR) Changes:
- April to July 2025: Net loss of 58,719 people, the second-largest quarterly decline on record
- NPR peak total: 3.15 million in October 2024
- Current NPR total: 3.02 million, representing 7.3% of total population
Specific Reduction Categories:
- Study permit holders: Decreased by 32,025
- Work permit holders: Decreased by 19,637
- Holders of both study and work permits: Decreased by 19,072
- Asylum claimants and protected persons: Increased by nearly 18,000
This trend directly reflects the federal government's temporary resident reduction policies announced in 2024, particularly restrictions targeting international students.
Population Aging Trends Accelerate Again
Age Structure Changes:
- Median age: Rose from 40.3 to 40.6 years (July 2024 to July 2025)
- Average age: Rose from 41.6 to 41.8 years
- Population 65+: 19.5% of total population, reaching 8.1 million, with 3.4% annual growth
- Children aged 0-14: Remained at 6.26 million with no significant growth
Labor Force Population Under Increased Pressure:
- Working-age population (15-64) growth rate: Only 0.4%
- Previous year same period growth rate: 3.2%
- Primary cause: Sharp reduction in young non-permanent residents (especially international students)
Provincial Population Growth Shows Significant Disparities
Fastest Growing Provinces:
- Prince Edward Island: +0.8%
- Alberta: +0.4% (12 consecutive quarters attracting interprovincial migration)
Population Decline Regions:
- British Columbia: Decreased by 2,154 people
- Permanent immigrant inflow: Over 12,000 people
- Non-permanent resident outflow: Nearly 14,700 people
- Net emigration: Over 2,600 people
Interprovincial Migration Patterns:
- Ontario: Net outflow for 15 consecutive quarters, losing 6,154 residents in Q2
- Primary destination provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec
Newfoundland and Labrador Sets Historic Record
Newfoundland and Labrador became Canada's first province where more than 25% of the population (25.2%) is aged 65 or older, highlighting regional disparities in national population aging.
National Age Structure Comparison:
- Youngest region: Nunavut
- Median age: 27.1 years
- Population 65+ ratio: 5.2%
- National average: 19.5% of population 65+
Future Outlook: Escalating Labor Shortage Risks
Key Challenges:
- Low fertility rates
- Extended life expectancy
- Declining proportion of young new immigrants
- Continued retirement of baby boom generation
Policy Impact Analysis:
- Current temporary immigration decline demonstrates rapid population structure balance changes
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) contributes weakly to total growth
- Immigration (permanent and temporary) remains the most important tool supporting labor supply
Prospect Assessment:
Although Canada commits to receiving over 100,000 permanent residents per quarter, this may be insufficient to offset the combined effects of shrinking young population and rising retirement numbers. Rebuilding temporary immigration channels or shifting focus toward younger permanent residents could be key measures to reverse the current labor force contraction.
Data Source: Statistics Canada, released September 24, 2025
Canada Express Entry Latest Draw: 345 Invitations Issued to Provincial Nominee Program Candidates
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issued 345 invitations to apply to Provincial Nominee Program candidates through the Express Entry system on October 14, 2025. This draw required candidates to have a minimum CRS score of 778 points and to have created their Express Entry profile before July 17, 2025. This marks the 19th Provincial Nominee draw conducted by IRCC this year and the third draw in October.
10/15/2025
Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program Issues 862 Invitations, Focusing on Healthcare and Caregiving Sectors
On October 9, 2025, Manitoba issued invitations to apply for provincial nomination to 862 candidates through the Skilled Worker stream of the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP). This draw was conducted through two main pathways: the occupation-specific Skilled Worker in Manitoba pathway and the employer-driven Skilled Worker Overseas selection. Notably, this draw continued to prioritize candidates under the Temporary Public Policy (TPP), with 203 candidates also holding valid federal Express Entry profiles.
10/14/2025
Alberta Conducts Three Provincial Nominee Draws in One Week, Issuing 1,324 Invitations
Between October 1 and October 7, 2025, the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP) held three separate provincial nomination draws, issuing a total of 1,324 Invitations to Apply (ITAs). Among them, the Alberta Opportunity Stream (AOS) accounted for the majority, with 1,003 invitations, maintaining its lead as the province’s largest channel of nominations. The Accelerated Tech Pathway and Priority Sectors (Construction) streams, both aligned with the federal Express Entry system, targeted applicants in high-demand occupations. In addition, the Government of Alberta received an increase of 1,528 nomination spots in September, raising its total 2025 allocation to 6,403. As of October 10, the province had issued 4,228 nominations, leaving 2,175 available for the remainder of the year.
10/13/2025
Manitoba Successfully Secures Immigration Allocation Increase, Adding Nearly 1,500 Nomination Spots
Manitoba has successfully secured an increase in its 2025 immigration nomination allocation from the federal government, gaining an additional 1,489 nomination spots, bringing the province's total allocation for this year to 6,239. This adjustment will enable Manitoba to nominate more candidates to obtain permanent residence and settle in the province before the end of 2025. This allocation increase represents a partial recovery following the significant reduction in provincial nominee program allocations nationwide at the beginning of 2025.
10/11/2025
British Columbia Receives Additional 1,254 Provincial Nominee Allocations, Will Process Backlogged International Post-Graduate Applications
The Government of British Columbia announced on October 2, 2025, that the province's Provincial Nominee Program (BC PNP) has received an additional 1,254 nomination allocations from the federal government. This brings British Columbia's total allocation for 2025 from 4,000 to 5,254. The provincial government stated that it will prioritize using these additional allocations to process backlogged International Post-Graduate (IPG) stream applications from 2024, while continuing to focus on attracting healthcare professionals, entrepreneurs, and high economic impact candidates.
10/10/2025
IRCC Announces 2025 Permanent Residence Application Processing Plan
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) recently disclosed its 2025 permanent residence (PR) application processing plan in its latest Minister Transition Binder. According to the document, the immigration department will not clear all categories of application backlogs this year, but will instead adopt a categorized processing strategy. Express Entry-related programs, community pilot programs, and Quebec's skilled worker pathways will process all pending applications, while other economic immigration programs will only process a portion of their backlogs, with processing ratios ranging from 2% to 35%.
10/09/2025
Newfoundland and Labrador Issues 217 Provincial Nominee and Atlantic Immigration Invitations
On September 26, 2025, the Newfoundland and Labrador Office of Immigration and Multiculturalism issued a total of 217 immigration application invitations through the Provincial Nominee Program (NLPNP) and the Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP). This marks the first time since the province implemented an Expression of Interest system for both immigration programs in February of this year that the number of Atlantic Immigration Program invitations exceeded those for the Provincial Nominee Program. To date, the province has issued a cumulative total of 2,821 provincial immigration invitations in 2025.
10/08/2025
IRCC Issues Over 4,000 Invitations, Benefiting French-Language Category Applicants
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issued 4,500 invitations to apply (ITAs) through the Express Entry system on October 6, 2025, specifically targeting candidates with French-language proficiency. This marks the second draw in October and one of the largest French-language category draws this year. To date, the Express Entry system has issued over 70,000 invitations in 2025, with French-language category candidates receiving the highest number of invitations.
10/07/2025
British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program Issues 485 Invitations to Skilled Workers and Entrepreneurs
On October 2, 2025, the British Columbia Provincial Nominee Program (BC PNP) conducted another round of draws for the year, issuing a total of 485 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for provincial nomination to candidates across two major immigration categories. The Skills Immigration category issued 474 invitations, marking the first reopening of this category since May 8, 2025. The Entrepreneur Immigration Base Stream issued 11 invitations, continuing the province's policy direction of attracting entrepreneurial talent.
10/06/2025
Canada Targets U.S. H-1B Visa Applicants, Plans New Immigration Pathway
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently confirmed that the federal government is studying targeted measures to attract technical professionals affected by the new U.S. H-1B visa policy. This move comes in response to President Trump's sudden announcement of a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas. Canada previously launched a work permit program specifically for H-1B holders in July 2023, with 10,000 spots filling up in less than 48 hours, demonstrating strong market demand. Immigration experts and business groups are urging Canada to seize this opportunity, while also noting the need to streamline permanent residence application processes to truly retain talent.
10/04/2025
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