Where the report comes from and what it says

A Smarter Immigration Strategy carries the subtitle "Five questions that could shape Canada's future." It was led by Jackie Pichette, head of skills and postsecondary education policy at RBC Thought Leadership, with economist Farhad Panahov among the contributors. The authors say they consulted more than 60 economists, demographers, pollsters, industry representatives and policymakers while preparing it. RBC is Canada's largest bank, and its think tank reports carry weight in public policy debate; earlier this year, RBC had already listed "immigration policy failure" as one of the country's leading risks in its Top Risks 2026.

The report's overall judgment is that Canada's immigration strategy has "lost its edge" in recent years: roughly three million immigrants arrived over the three years from 2022 to 2024, effectively compressing a decade's worth of intake into three years; temporary residents rose from under 3% of the total population before the pandemic to 7.6% in 2024; GDP per capita declined two years running; and 71% of Canadians now say immigration levels are too high, the first time in more than two decades that public opinion has turned negative. The report organizes its recommendations around five themes — population growth targets, points-based selection, the provincial role, the temporary-to-permanent "two-step" pathway, and data gaps — and it is the Express Entry material that matters most to prospective applicants, and that is the focus here.

The core argument: category draws let lower-scoring candidates jump the queue

Express Entry launched in 2015 on a simple design: the CRS scores candidates on education, language ability, work experience and age, and invitations to apply (ITAs) go out from the highest score down, on the theory that this identifies the applicants most likely to succeed economically in Canada. Citing IRCC data, RBC notes that the mechanism delivers when it runs as designed: immigrants admitted through the CEC have median earnings of $92,100 ten years after landing, above the $67,400 for economic immigrants overall and far above the $47,600 for Canadians as a whole.

On June 23, 2022, however, the federal government amended the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act through the Budget Implementation Act, 2022 (Bill C-19), giving the immigration minister authority to create additional Express Entry categories tied to economic objectives, alongside the three original programs — the CEC, the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP). IRCC used that authority to launch category-based draws in 2023, initially covering six categories: French-language proficiency, healthcare, STEM, trades, transport and agriculture. In 2025 it dropped transport, added education and expanded healthcare into healthcare and social services. On February 18, 2026, Minister Diab reset the lineup again, adding categories for physicians with Canadian work experience, researchers and senior managers, transport occupations (pilots, aircraft technicians and inspectors) and highly skilled foreign nationals recruited by the Canadian Armed Forces, while retaining healthcare and social services, trades and French-language proficiency and raising the work-experience requirement for occupational categories from six months to 12 months.

RBC argues that this steadily expanding set of sub-categories creates a lower entry bar for particular occupational groups and undermines the core logic of a points system. The report offers the example of a teaching assistant invited through the education category who may be selected ahead of an engineer or a nurse practitioner sitting in the pool with a far higher CRS score. On that basis, the report calculates that a CEC invitation requires "over 100 points more, on average" than other categories.

The 2026 draw data bears out the gap. According to IRCC's published round records, Express Entry has held 53 draws so far this year through September 4, issuing 126,156 invitations — surpassing the previous annual record of 114,431 set in 2021. Cutoffs and invitation volumes by draw type break down as follows:

• CEC draws: 15 rounds, 51,250 invitations; cutoffs ranging from 507 (March 17) to 523 (August 18), with the most recent round on September 1 at 521.
• French-language proficiency draws: 10 rounds, 50,500 invitations; cutoffs ranging from 382 (August 19) to 420 (July 9), putting this single category roughly on par with the CEC for invitations issued this year.
• Healthcare and social services category: 3 rounds, 11,500 invitations; cutoffs of 467 to 475.
• Trades category: 1 round, 3,000 invitations, cutoff 477.
• Transport occupations category: 1 round, 300 invitations, cutoff 470.
• Senior managers category: 2 rounds, 750 invitations, with cutoffs of 429 and 392.
• Physician category: 3 rounds, 891 invitations; cutoffs of 169 (February 19), 223 (June 24) and 198 (September 3).
• Highly skilled military recruits category: 1 round, just 4 invitations, cutoff 368.
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws: 17 rounds, 7,961 invitations; cutoffs ranging from 697 to 805, largely reflecting the 600 points a provincial nomination carries.

Put another way, category-based draws issued 66,945 invitations in 2026, about 53% of all invitations for the year, with the French-language category alone accounting for roughly 40%. A candidate scoring 495 on the CRS and eligible only for the CEC has had no chance of an invitation so far this year; a candidate around 400 who meets the French-language requirement has had several. The 169 cutoff in the February 19 physician draw is not only the lowest of any 2026 round but the lowest on record since category-based selection launched in 2023, beating the previous low of 336 set by a French-language draw on February 29, 2024.

RBC's seven recommendations

To address the problems it identifies, the report proposes adjustments to Express Entry on seven fronts.

1. Restore the points-based system and invite the highest-ranked candidates first.

This is the report's most direct recommendation: federal draws should always invite the top-ranked candidates in the pool regardless of occupation or category eligibility, returning federal selection to human-capital scores as its primary basis.

2. Tighten or eliminate category-based draws at the federal level.

The report urges Canada to "refrain from leveraging the Express Entry program to advance short-term aims by adding sub-categories within it or other federal economic immigration categories alongside it." RBC goes further, calling for the structure of category-based draws to be eliminated at the federal level altogether. Notably, IRCC's spring consultation on merging the three federal high-skilled programs explicitly excluded the categories, which the minister reviews separately on an annual basis.

3. Reverse the 2022 legislation that authorized the categories.

The report does not stop at administrative fixes; it suggests Parliament may need to withdraw the statutory power granted in 2022 for the immigration minister to create additional categories. RBC notes that the category list has already changed repeatedly since 2022, which it says demonstrates "how quickly skill demands change and the futility of designing permanent immigration around them at a national level." This is the most far-reaching of the seven recommendations, requiring an act of Parliament rather than a ministerial instruction.

4. Set a minimum share of economic immigration for Express Entry.

Citing Statistics Canada data, the report notes that close to 80% of economic immigrants were admitted through the federal points system in 2000, a share that has fallen to roughly 30% in recent years, largely because of the expansion of the Provincial Nominee Program and the emergence of other non-points-based federal streams. Under the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, the 2026 admissions target for Federal High Skilled programs is 109,000 against an overall economic target of 239,800, or about 45%. RBC recommends that policymakers consider setting a floor for Express Entry's share, ensuring federal points-based selection retains a substantial role in economic immigration.

5. Reintroduce a minimum cutoff based on core factors.

The report recalls that CRS cutoffs generally sat above 400 before the pandemic, but that on February 13, 2021, in a push to meet permanent residence targets during travel restrictions, a CEC draw fell to 75. RBC suggests considering a floor based on core selection factors, explicitly excluding the 600 points attached to a provincial nomination. The change would mainly affect candidates at the bottom of the score distribution and could permanently close the door on the kind of ultra-low cutoffs seen during the pandemic.

6. Devolve category selection to the provinces and territories.

RBC does not argue for abolishing targeted selection outright, but for shifting it from the federal level to the provinces. Its reasoning is that talent shortages in fields such as healthcare and the skilled trades vary enormously by region, and provinces have a better read on which occupations they actually need. The report points to the Provincial Nominee Program's track record as evidence: when the program launched in 1998, only 11% of economic immigrants settled outside Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia; by 2024 that share had risen to 37%. The report also notes, however, that roughly 80 provincial pathways now overlap and criss-cross, with provinces setting widely divergent rules for similar needs, and it recommends that provinces coordinate to consolidate them into fewer, more stable categories with adjustable criteria. RBC adds that provincial nominees selected from the Express Entry pool earn about 30% more three years after landing than nominees who did not come through the pool, so provinces should draw more of their candidates from it. Under this model, Ottawa focuses on high-score selection while provinces handle occupation-specific recruitment.

7. Commit to recalibrating the CRS formula on a regular basis.

The report recommends that Canada review the CRS periodically so that it reflects changes in the labour market, particularly as artificial intelligence reshapes which skills remain valuable. RBC also proposes folding data on temporary workers' Canadian earnings directly into the scoring mechanism, strengthening the "temporary first, permanent second" two-step pathway. Rather than a one-off adjustment, RBC calls for a recurring recalibration process.

Where this aligns with IRCC's existing reform agenda, and where it doesn't

Some of RBC's recommendations overlap with IRCC's own thinking. From April 23 to May 24, 2026, IRCC ran a public consultation on Express Entry reform, proposing to merge the CEC, FSWP and FSTP into a single Federal High Skilled program and to recalibrate the CRS using employment-outcome data: official language ability and earnings as a temporary resident were listed among the strongest predictors of economic success; Canadian work experience, a job offer, a university credential and younger age were rated moderate predictors; and spousal factors, a sibling in Canada, additional French-language points and Canadian study points were comparatively weak. IRCC is considering awarding additional points to candidates with Canadian work experience or job offers in high-wage occupations, with tiers set at 1.3 times, 1.5 times and 2 times the national median wage. No results report has been published from that consultation, and any changes would be issued through the Canada Gazette process.

On the category question, IRCC sought public input from August 4 to September 1, 2026 on the 2027 categories, saying it is considering "narrowing" the number or eligibility scope of labour-shortage categories while exploring new directions aimed at U.S. H-1B visa holders, researchers, and occupations aligned with the International Talent Attraction Strategy and the Global Talent Stream. The 2027 categories are expected in February 2027. That suggests IRCC is willing to shrink some categories but has not abandoned category-based draws as a tool, leaving a clear distance between its position and RBC's call to eliminate federal categories entirely.

Another issue the report does not address head-on is the francophone immigration target. Under the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec are to make up 9% of admissions in 2026, 9.5% in 2027 and 10.5% in 2028, with the federal government committing to 12% by 2029. French-language category draws are IRCC's primary instrument for hitting those targets, and they have issued 50,500 invitations so far in 2026. If federal category draws were eliminated, the report offers no answer on how the francophone targets would be met.

What it would mean for different applicants

If RBC's recommendations were adopted, every group of candidates in the Express Entry pool would feel the effects.

• High-scoring CEC candidates would likely be the biggest winners. If more federal invitations were issued by CRS rank rather than allocated to category draws, candidates currently hovering below the 507-to-523 threshold would see their chances improve markedly.
• French-speaking candidates currently benefit from a dedicated draw with cutoffs more than 100 points below the CEC, and they account for the bulk of category-based invitations. Under current CRS rules, candidates who meet the French threshold can earn up to 50 additional points depending on their English results. If the dedicated French draws were eliminated, that separate route would disappear, and the fate of the French bonus points would depend on the accompanying CRS reform.
• Candidates in the healthcare, trades, education and transport occupational categories would likewise have to compete against the entire pool on their total score alone.
• Provincial nominee candidates would be relatively less affected, and if category selection really were devolved to the provinces, the PNP could become the main outlet for occupation-targeted immigration.

The report itself acknowledges the tension in this trade-off. "One could argue that all of Canada's economic immigration should come through Express Entry," it writes, "But this would ignore talent shortages in communities across the country." That is precisely why the report argues for moving category selection to the provincial level rather than scrapping it altogether.

Still a recommendation, not policy — what applicants should watch

It must be said plainly that the RBC report is a private institution's policy advice, not a government announcement. As of September 9, neither IRCC nor Minister Diab had responded to it; IRCC held a physician category draw on September 3 and a healthcare and social services draw on September 4, and category-based draws have not stopped. The Immigration Levels Plan also does not set separate admissions targets for individual Express Entry categories. One former IRCC official called the report's diagnosis sound and its recommendations reasonable, while immigration trade press has cautioned readers that these proposals remain a long way from becoming policy.

Procedurally, the recommendations differ widely in how hard they would be to implement: changing draw frequency or who gets invited can be done by ministerial instruction; changing the CRS formula or program structure requires amending the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations and publication in the Canada Gazette; and withdrawing the 2022 statutory authority to create categories would require an act of Parliament.

The dates worth watching next include the results report from IRCC's spring Express Entry reform consultation; the announcement of the 2027 categories, expected in February 2027; and the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan, whose public consultation closed on June 30, 2026 and which must by law be tabled in Parliament by November 1. For candidates currently in the pool, until policy actually changes, improving language scores, accumulating Canadian work experience and tracking provincial nominee pathways that match their profile remain the practical ways to raise the odds of an invitation.